Friday, March 30, 2007

The Brits Turn to the UN for help in Iran... What they can expect.

Watered down, ambiguous, face-saving (for Iran) rhetoric that in no way positively influences the out come.

Asking the Security Council to intervene in a matter that is time sensitive is like asking a NYC cab driver to take you to Dublin Ireland. First of all it would take a long time and second and most importantly the vehicle is not designed for that purpose and there is zero chance of success when employed for that purpose. The UNSC is not designed for hostage negotiation. Anytime the Security Council gets bogged down in minutia it fails. Why? It is toothless. There is no real enforcement mechanism. Iran only recognizes the UN when it is to its benefit. Just like every other nation in the world.

The UN has only one weapon. The appearance of authority. If the issue is too large or complicated nations can move around and in between that authority. Or if the issue is to small and complicated it can move in spite of it. (as this one is)

If the UNSC could act quickly and unambiguously it could have some say in this matter. But it has done neither to date. In fact, in the statement that the UN has made about the matter it has chosen the words "grave concern" instead of the Brit suggested "deplore".

I think those poor sailors and marines are in for a long ride in Tehran. The Brits won't go in and get them. (which I kind of wish they would, but again, the "media" would show any casualty as a failure.) The Iranians have NO incentive that I can think of to cooperate. Ahmahdinejad is the media darling. His absence in this matter has been noted. The one thing that has gone right is that the US has stayed OUT of this in terms of any public influence.

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